Via UK200Group, BKL tax partner David Whiscombe reacts to Mr Osborne’s claims that leaving the EU would have a direct impact on UK households, leaving them £4300 a year worse off.
“It seems to me that, even without descending to making unkind comments about the Treasury’s track record in such matters, it is difficult to attach very much credibility to anyone’s assessment of the likely state of any economy up to 14 years hence. To put this into context, you need only consider what dire predictions would have been made in 1946 of the future performance of the West German economy and compare those with the position in 1960. Arguably, publishing what is in reality wild speculation under the guise of firm information does more harm than good to the “Remain” camp.
There is as much risk and uncertainty in staying in as in coming out. Ignore the great bulk of what you are told by either side on the economic arguments for and against, the truth of which is unknowable. Essentially, this is not an economic decision but a political one. Make your decision on the simple question – do you want the UK to be a part of a much larger political and economic unit which on the one hand inevitably involves surrender of aspects of sovereignty but on the other has significantly contributed to avoiding conflict in Europe for the past 70 years? It’s not an easy decision.”